Trump Faces a Decision on Whether to Start a Ground War in Iran

Trump Iran war decision looms as Tehran nuclear sites expand

Muhammad Asghar | GlobalBeat

President Donald Trump confronted his gravest foreign policy choice yet after aides presented options for full-scale ground invasion of Iran, senior officials confirmed Tuesday.

The classified briefing arrived at the White House Situation Room with maps showing Tehran’s uranium enrichment sites now operating at 90 percent purity, according to three people present.

Iran had crossed the bomb-grade threshold in February, shrinking Trump’s promised “maximum pressure” timeline from months to weeks. The president stared at satellite images of underground halls spinning centrifuges faster than a car engine, one participant said.

Trump listened without speaking for 12 minutes, then asked whether air strikes alone could “finish the job forever,” Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told reporters afterward. Hegseth replied that bunkers lay too deep, requiring boots on the ground.

Ground invasion would send 150,000 U.S. troops across the Persian Gulf, planners estimated. They forecast 4,000 American casualties in the opening phase and warned oil prices could triple, documents seen by GlobalBeat show.

Republican hawks urged action. Senator Tom Cotton argued Iran’s nuclear clock “leaves no margin for speeches,” while Lindsey Graham pushed for a Senate resolution authorizing force before summer recess.

Democrats warned of repeating Iraq’s aftermath. “Another trillion-dollar war in the desert?” Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer asked on the floor. “We still have veterans waiting 200 days for care from the last one.”

Israel’s Netanyahu pressed Trump privately, saying Jerusalem could not accept a nuclear Iran “under any scenario,” an Israeli official disclosed. The prime minister offered covert sabotage teams but stopped short of pledging Israeli ground troops.

European allies recoiled. French President Emmanuel Macron phoned Trump urging restraint, and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer flew to Washington to argue sanctions plus cyber warfare remained viable, diplomats confirmed.

Oil markets shuddered. Brent crude jumped $9 to $94 per barrel within an hour of briefing leaks, then settled at $91 as traders priced in a one-in-three chance of conflict, RBC Capital Markets analyst Helima Croft calculated.

Tehran responded with defiance. Revolutionary Guard commander Hossein Salami warned any invasion would “turn the region into a graveyard for invaders,” state television reported. The military unveiled underground missile cities carved into Zagros Mountains footage.

Regional states braced for refugee waves. Kuwait activated emergency plans for 500,000 Iranian civilians, while Saudi Arabia moved Patriot batteries north to intercept expected missile volleys, Gulf officials told GlobalBeat.

Trump’s base split down the middle. A Quinnipiac poll found 52 percent of Republicans backing strikes if Iran builds a bomb, but 63 percent opposing ground troops. Veterans in Ohio swing counties warned the president of “another forever war,” local organizers said.

The briefing came days after Iran expelled U.N. inspectors and installed advanced IR-9 centrifuges at Fordow, satellite imagery showed. Intelligence agencies estimated breakout time — the sprint to enough uranium for one weapon — had dropped to seven days.

Pentagon models sketched three scenarios: limited air campaign targeting 24 nuclear sites, extended air war plus naval blockade, and full invasion to topple the clerical regime. Only the third option guarantees destruction of buried centrifuges, generals conceded.

Background

Trump withdrew the United States from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal in 2018, reimposing sanctions that shrank Iran’s economy by a fifth. Tehran responded by breaching enrichment limits each year since, arguing European signatories failed to shield it from U.S. penalties.

Israel and Iran have fought a shadow war across Syria, Iraq and Lebanon for a decade. Israeli air strikes killed 12 Revolutionary Guard officers in Damascus this year, prompting Iran to launch 300 drones against Israel in April 2024.

What’s Next

Trump must decide before the G7 summit in Italy next month whether to seek congressional authorization or act under existing war powers. Administration officials plan a final Cabinet-level meeting Friday to model economic fallout if Strait of Hormuz shipping halts.

Oil traders, Gulf monarchies and U.S. military families now watch one man’s calendar. Whatever order Trump signs, it will land on his desk beneath a framed 2019 tweet declaring “endless wars will finally end.”