Trump: US May Act on Cuba After Rare Havana Protest

Former president’s warning follows largest anti-government demonstration since 1994

Muhammad Asghar | GlobalBeat

📌 KEY FACTS
• Hundreds of Cubans marched in Havana’s Centro Habana district on 29 March, the largest protest since 1994
• Trump administration officials discuss potential responses while managing concurrent Iran military buildup
• US State Department monitoring situation through embassy in Havana’s Vedado neighbourhood
• Cuban government blames US embargo for economic collapse that triggered demonstrations
• Protest marks first major public dissent since Miguel Díaz-Canel became president in 2018

Hundreds of Cubans marched through Havana’s narrow streets last Saturday, chanting “freedom” and “we have no power” in the island’s largest anti-government demonstration since the 1994 Maleconazo uprising that forced Fidel Castro to allow mass migration.

The rare protest erupted as Cuba faces its worst economic crisis in decades, with blackouts lasting up to 18 hours daily and food shortages forcing families to queue for basic staples. Electricity production has fallen 30% below demand, while inflation reached 31% last year according to government figures that many economists consider conservative.

Trump Pledges Action Amid Broader Foreign Policy Push

Speaking to reporters outside his Mar-a-Lago residence on Monday, Trump declared “we’re watching Cuba very closely” and promised the United States would “do what we have to do” regarding the crisis. The comments came as his administration simultaneously builds up military presence in the Persian Gulf amid escalating tensions with Iran.

The simultaneous focus on two flashpoints reflects Trump’s increasingly assertive foreign policy posture as he consolidates control over national security apparatus. His Trump Cuba policy positions during the 2024 campaign included promises to reverse Obama-era diplomatic openings, though specifics remain undefined.

Havana Streets Tell Story of Economic Collapse

The demonstration began spontaneously when residents of Centro Habana, frustrated by another night without electricity, took to the streets around 9 PM local time. Within hours, hundreds joined from neighbouring districts including Old Havana and Cerro, witnesses reported.

Protesters banged pots and pans—a traditional Latin American protest method called cacerolazo—while shouting slogans against President Miguel Díaz-Canel’s government. “We can’t take it anymore,” one woman told local residents filming the march, her voice cracking. “My children haven’t eaten properly in days.”

Cuban security forces initially allowed the march to proceed before blocking streets leading to the Capitol building. No immediate arrests were reported, though plainclothes police photographed participants using mobile phones.

Energy Crisis Fuels Public Anger

Cuba’s electrical grid has teetered on collapse since Hurricane Ian destroyed 40% of transmission infrastructure in 2022. The government has struggled to repair damage amid fuel shortages and lack of hard currency for spare parts.

State electricity company UNE announced Monday that blackouts would continue “indefinitely” due to breakdowns at Antonio Guiteras, the island’s largest power plant. The facility, built with Soviet technology in the 1980s, has operated at 60% capacity for months.

“We schedule outages overnight to preserve fuel for hospitals and bakeries,” said UNE director Alfredo López Valdés in televised remarks. “But we’re running out of options.”

Trump’s Cuba History Complicates Response

During his first term, Trump reversed Barack Obama’s historic détente with Havana, reimposing strict travel restrictions and adding over 200 Cuban entities to sanctions lists. His administration also controversially reinstated Cuba on the State Department’s list of state sponsors of terrorism just days before leaving office.

These measures devastated Cuba’s tourism industry, which had grown to account for 10% of GDP during the Obama opening. The sector has never recovered, with visitor numbers remaining 40% below 2017 levels before the pandemic struck.

“Trump’s Cuba policy was defined by maximum pressure,” said William LeoGrande, Latin America professor at American University who tracks US-Cuba relations. “Any new action would likely escalate that approach.”

Regional Powers Monitor Unfolding Crisis

Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum indicated Monday her government would offer humanitarian assistance if requested. “We stand ready to help the Cuban people as brothers,” she told reporters in Mexico City.

Russia, historically Cuba’s closest ally, called for “restraint from all parties” while Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova blamed US sanctions for “creating unbearable conditions for ordinary Cubans.”

The European Union, which maintains normalised relations with Havana, urged dialogue between government and protesters. “Peaceful protest is a fundamental right,” EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas stated.

Migration Fears Rise as Conditions Worsen

As conditions deteriorate, US Coast Guard officials report increasing interceptions of Cuban rafters attempting the 90-mile crossing to Florida. Over 5,000 Cubans were stopped at sea in 2024, triple the previous year’s numbers.

“We’re preparing for another mass exodus,” said a senior Homeland Security official who requested anonymity because they weren’t authorised to discuss internal planning. The 1980 Mariel boatlift and 1994 rafter crisis each brought over 100,000 Cuban migrants to US shores.

Meanwhile, the Trump administration has signalled willingness to consider military options while maintaining focus on Iran, raising questions about Washington’s capacity to manage simultaneous crises.

What’s Less Clear Is How Intervention Would Work

Any US military action in Cuba would face significant obstacles including geographic distance, lack of regional allies for basing, and memories of the failed 1961 Bay of Pigs invasion. The 55,000-strong Cuban military, while poorly equipped, maintains sophisticated Russian air defence systems around key installations.

More likely scenarios include expanded sanctions targeting Venezuela’s oil shipments to Cuba—currently 60,000 barrels daily—or increased support for dissident groups. But such measures risk deepening the humanitarian crisis that sparked protests initially.

“The challenge runs deeper than removing the government,” noted former State Department Cuba analyst Robert Muse. “Cuba needs functioning economy, which requires not just political change but massive investment.”

For Ordinary Cubans, Daily Struggle Intensifies

Maria González, a 47-year-old Havana resident who asked her real name not be used, illustrates the human toll. She spends four hours daily queuing for bread, only to find supplies exhausted when she reaches the counter. Her teenage daughter faints during school because breakfast consists of water mixed with sugar.

“We don’t want American soldiers,” she said, glancing nervously at neighbours who might inform on dissent. “We want electricity, food, medicine. Is that too much to ask?”

Her husband earns roughly $25 monthly as a state mechanic, barely enough for two weeks of vegetables at informal market prices. Their family of four survives on remittances from relatives in Miami—payments increasingly difficult to receive after Trump restricted Western Union operations on the island.

Global Authoritarian Crackdown Pattern Emerges

Cuba’s protest fits a broader pattern of civil unrest from authoritarian states facing economic pressure. Venezuela saw similar demonstrations in 2017, Nicaragua in 2018, and more recently Iran in 2022—all triggered by subsidy cuts or price increases on basic goods.

The Trump administration’s dual focus on Iran and Cuba reflects recognition that economic sanctions, while weakening hostile regimes, often precipitate humanitarian crises that force populations to risk public protest. Both Tehran and Havana face currency collapses exceeding 80% in recent years.

This creates a diplomatic dilemma: tightened sanctions achieve regime change goals but at enormous human cost, while loosened restrictions may prolong authoritarian rule by providing economic breathing room.

Days Ahead Could Prove Decisive

The Cuban government has scheduled nationwide “revolutionary” demonstrations for Wednesday in apparent attempt to reclaim streets from protesters. State television broadcasts continuous footage of past government supporters while social media access has been intermittently restricted.

Meanwhile, Trump administration officials plan Thursday briefings with Florida’s Cuban-American congressional delegation, including Senator Marco Rubio and Representatives Maria Elvira Salazar and Carlos Giménez. These lawmakers have pressed for stronger action including naval blockades to prevent fuel shipments.

What happens next depends largely on whether demonstrations spread beyond Havana to provincial cities like Santiago de Cuba and Holguín, where government support traditionally runs stronger but economic pain cuts equally deep.