How a ‘Model’ for Climate Migration Became a Cautionary Tale

Climate migration failures expose Bangladesh village relocation disaster
Muhammad Asghar | GlobalBeat

Khairul Islam watched salt water swallow his rice fields for the final time in 2018 before abandoning his coastal village in southern Bangladesh.

The planned relocation of nearly 7,000 families from Kutubdia island was supposed to showcase how governments could proactively move climate-threatened communities to safety. Four years later, only 253 families have completed the move, and most have returned to the island they were meant to leave forever.

The $70 million project has left hundreds of millions in international donor funds unused, turned newly built apartment blocks into ghost towns, and exposed the gap between climate migration theory and reality on the ground. Aid workers now cite Kutubdia as a textbook case of how not to relocate climate-threatened populations.

“This was meant to be the model everyone would copy,” said Aminul Islam, disaster management director for the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies in Bangladesh. “Instead it’s become the warning everyone studies.”

Coastal Bangladesh faces some of the world’s fastest sea-level rise, with Kutubdia losing 62 square kilometers to erosion since 1970. The island’s population dropped from 150,000 to 120,000 as land vanished into the Bay of Bengal, prompting Dutch and British development agencies to fund what became the South Bangladesh Climate Resilience Project.

Villagers were promised new concrete homes 25 kilometers inland at Banshkhali, complete with running water, electricity, schools and health clinics. Each family would receive $2,600 for relocation plus monthly food rations for six months. The plan called for voluntary relocation of 6,933 households by 2022.

Reality unfolded differently. The government built 630 apartments but couldn’t convince residents to occupy them. New homes lacked proper drainage, leaving ground floors flooded during monsoons. Electricity connections arrived two years late. Local officials demanded bribes for paperwork. Most damaging, relocated families discovered they couldn’t find work at their new sites.

Bilkis Begum moved her family of six to Banshkhali in 2020, enticed by the new apartment and cash payment. She lasted 18 months before returning to Kutubdia.

“There were no jobs for women in Banshkhali,” she said in a phone interview. “My husband found day labor maybe 2 days per week. My children went hungry. On Kutubdia we at least catch fish and collect crabs to eat.”

The International Organization for Migration documented similar stories across the project. Their 2023 assessment found 68% of relocated families had returned to coastal areas, abandoning their new homes despite worsening climate risks. Satellite images show entire apartment blocks standing empty, windows broken, fittings stripped by looters.

Bangladesh’s disaster management ministry disputes the failure characterization. Director-general Md. Kamrul Hasan told reporters the project succeeded in demonstrating relocation infrastructure could be built, even if uptake fell short.

“We learned people won’t leave their ancestral land just because we build them new houses,” Hasan said. “Climate migration requires more comprehensive solutions than subsidized housing.”

The Netherlands Foreign Ministry, which contributed $35 million, ordered an independent review after Dutch media exposed the project’s troubles. Reviewers found planners underestimated cultural attachment to ancestral land and overestimated willingness to abandon traditional livelihoods for uncertain urban employment.

Dutch climate envoy Jaap de Hoop Scheffer wrote to parliament acknowledging “fundamental design flaws” in treating relocation as primarily a housing challenge rather than a complex socio-economic transition. His letter recommended abandoning the “model project” label and treating future climate migration efforts as multi-decade processes requiring sustained income support.

British development agency DFID suspended its $20 million contribution in 2022 after an internal audit found funds had been diverted to unrelated government programs. The audit discovered relocation payments reaching only 40% of intended recipients, with officials blaming “administrative complexity” for the shortfall.

Climate migration researchers point to deeper structural problems exposed by Kutubdia’s experience. Dr. Saleemul Huq, director of the International Centre for Climate Change and Development in Bangladesh, said the project reflected international agencies’ tendency to impose technical solutions without understanding local social dynamics.

“Sea-level rise threatens these communities, but poverty and lack of opportunity keeps them trapped,” Huq said. “You can’t solve that with apartment blocks alone. People need realistic pathways to earn livelihoods wherever you move them.”

The stranded infrastructure has become a political liability for Bangladesh’s government. Opposition parties cite empty Banshkhali apartments as symbols of official incompetence during campaign rallies. Local residents resent resources lavished on unused facilities while basic services remain lacking in existing communities.

Climate funding organizations are reassessing relocation projects worldwide after Kutubdia’s stumbles. The Green Climate Fund postponed approval for similar relocation proposals from Pacific island nations pending new guidelines on community engagement and livelihood restoration.

Disaster management officials now speak of “managed retreat” rather than relocation, emphasizing gradual transition support over one-time housing subsidies. Bangladesh’s updated climate adaptation plan extends relocation timelines to 15 years while tripling proposed income support periods.

Background

Bangladesh ranks among countries most vulnerable to climate change, with 163 million people living on low-lying river deltas. Sea-level rise of 3.3 millimeters annually threatens to displace 20 million coastal residents by 2050 according to government projections.

Previous relocation efforts focused on disaster response rather than proactive climate adaptation. Cyclones in 1970 and 1991 killed 500,000 and 140,000 people respectively, prompting establishment of cyclone shelters and early warning systems. The Kutubdia project represented Bangladesh’s first attempt at planned relocation before disaster struck, making its struggles particularly significant for global climate adaptation efforts.

What’s Next

Bangladesh officials plan to convert empty Banshkhali apartments into rental housing for industrial workers while redesigning coastal relocation efforts around cash-for-work programs and skills training. New proposals require relocated families to demonstrate six months of stable income at destination sites before moving, with support payments continuing for three years rather than six months.