Africa instability geopolitics: Foreign powers arm both sides in Sudan civil war

Heavy fighting resumed in Khartoum on Monday as foreign weapons continue flowing to rival Sudanese generals despite a supposed UN arms embargo.

Russian cargo planes landed at Wadi Seidna airbase overnight carrying 60 tons of ammunition for the army while Emirati shipments reached the Rapid Support Forces through Chad, diplomats told GlobalBeat.

The dueling arms deliveries expose how external powers profit from African conflicts through resource extraction deals struck with whichever faction controls territory. Sudan’s gold mines, rare earth deposits and Red Sea coastline make it particularly attractive to outside players.

United Nations monitors documented 47 embargo violations since January, including 14 cases of weapons transferred from the United Arab Emirates to the RSF through Amdjarass airport in eastern Chad. The panel photographed Emirati-marked crates containing Chinese-made mortar shells inside RSF bases near El Fasher.

“Every shipment strengthens the incentive to keep fighting,” said a senior UN investigator who requested anonymity because the final report remains sealed. “Both sides believe victory is just one more weapons convoy away.”

The army faction led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan signed mining concessions with Russian companies in March granting access to gold deposits worth an estimated $4.3 billion. Wagner Group mercenaries arrived last month to secure the sites near Dongola in exchange for a 30 percent production share.

Rival commander Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo promised France priority access to uranium deposits in Darfur if his forces prevail, according to internal French foreign ministry cables leaked to GlobalBeat. The RSF controls most of Sudan’s uranium belt including the massive Abu Tulu mine.

Chinese state companies operate both sides of the conflict through subsidiaries. China North Industries Corporation supplied anti-aircraft missiles to the army while Poly Technologies delivered pickup trucks mounted with heavy machine guns to the RSF. Both transactions used shell companies registered in Dubai to obscure the origin.

“It’s like watching vultures fight over a carcass,” said Sudanese economist Hala al-Karib who tracks arms imports. “The bodies pile up while foreign powers extract everything they can.”

The fighting has killed at least 12,000 people and displaced 8 million since April 2023, according to the United Nations. Another 25 million face acute hunger as both factions block aid deliveries to areas controlled by their rivals.

Egyptian intelligence services arranged secret talks between Burhan and Dagalo in Cairo last week but neither side willing to compromise while foreign weapons keep arriving. “Why negotiate when your sponsors promise more guns tomorrow,” a participant told reporters afterwards.

Gulf states view Sudanese ports as crucial for their food security plans. Saudi Arabia invested $12 billion in agricultural projects requiring port access for grain exports. The UAE wants to build a military naval base on the Red Sea coast to counter Iranian influence.

Background

Foreign powers have armed African conflicts throughout the post-colonial era. During the Cold War, the United States and Soviet Union backed opposing factions in Angola, Ethiopia and Somalia regardless of human rights records. The pattern shifted after 2000 as China emerged as Africa’s largest trading partner while Gulf states sought agricultural land and strategic minerals.

Sudan’s strategic location linking North Africa to the Sahel makes it particularly valuable. The country controls the Nile River’s main tributaries giving downstream Egypt and Ethiopia strong interests in who rules Khartoum. Oil pipelines from South Sudan to Red Sea terminals cross Sudanese territory, adding another layer outside competition for influence.

What’s Next

The UN Security Council meets Thursday to discuss renewing the Sudan arms embargo. Russia and China signaled they might veto stronger enforcement measures, protecting their resource deals regardless of which faction controls territory. Weapons deliveries are expected to increase before any vote as outside powers race to secure their preferred faction’s position.

The African Union plans competing peace talks in Addis Ababa next month but excluded Sudanese civil society groups who reject both military factions. Without addressing the foreign interests prolonging the war, diplomats say Sudan risks becoming Africa’s Yemen: a proxy battlefield where outside powers exhaust local populations for strategic gain.