Can Trump’s tough-guy approach work with Iran?

Trump Iran policy: President threatens ‘maximum pressure 2.0’ in bid to dismantle Tehran’s nuclear program

Muhammad Asghar | GlobalBeat

President Donald Trump has ordered aides to draft a new sanctions package designed to cut Iranian oil exports to “zero within 12 months” as he revives the hardline approach that defined his first term.

The directive, issued during a Monday Situation Room meeting, signals the opening move in what White House officials call “maximum pressure 2.0” — a campaign that enlists regional allies and tighter enforcement to starve Tehran of the revenue it needs to enrich uranium, according to two people briefed on the plan.

The return to confrontation ends Joe Biden’s three-year effort to revive the 2015 nuclear accord. Iranian officials responded within hours, warning that any attempt to block oil sales “will be met with reciprocal action” and announcing plans to install advanced centrifuges at the Fordow site as early as next month. Oil prices jumped $2.18 to $82.46 a barrel on the news.

Trump has long argued that only economic pain can curb Iran’s regional activities. In 2018 he pulled the United States from the multilateral deal that capped Tehran’s enrichment in return for sanctions relief, and imposed more than 1,500 designations on banks, ports, shipping firms and individuals. Iranian crude exports crashed from 2.8 million barrels per day to below 400,000, pushing inflation above 40 percent and shrinking the economy by 6 percent, according to the International Monetary Fund.

Whether the same playbook can still work is uncertain. China now buys roughly 90 percent of Iran’s exported oil, paying in yuan through small “ghost” tankers that switch off transponders. European powers, bruised by Trump’s withdrawal from the first deal, are lobbying to keep a humanitarian channel open. And in Tehran, hardliners who opposed any accommodation with Washington strengthened their grip in March parliamentary elections.

“We are not in 2018 anymore,” said Ali Vaez, Iran project director at the International Crisis Group. “Global oil demand is higher, enforcement tools are weaker and the Iranian nuclear program is far more advanced. The president risks boxing himself into a choice between accepting a nuclear Iran or ordering a military strike.”

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told reporters that military options “remain on the table,” but stressed that the initial phase would be economic. Treasury officials have been told to sanction Chinese banks that process Iranian payments, diplomats said, while the Pentagon is exploring a renewed naval coalition to board suspect tankers in the Arabian Sea.

Republican lawmakers who criticized Biden’s diplomacy welcomed the shift. “Maximum pressure worked once, it will work again,” Senator Tom Cotton said on the Senate floor, arguing that any revenue Tehran earns “funds missiles in Gaza, drones in Ukraine and plots on American soil.”

Democrats warned of repeating an approach that accelerated Iranian enrichment. “After leaving the deal Iran went from 200 kg of low-enriched uranium to more than 6,200 kg — enough for several bombs,” Senator Chris Murphy said. “We are about to witness the sequel.”

Inside Iran, planners are preparing for the shock. The government presented a “resistance budget” last month that assumes oil revenue of just $25 billion, down from $55 billion two years ago, and raised the sales tax to 10 percent. Officials have revived a program that allows households to buy staple goods at a subsidized rate, a move economists say aims to cushion the poorest before prices soar.

Tehran’s stock market fell 3.7 percent Tuesday as investors dumped shares in petrochemical companies. The rial, already trading at 600,000 to the dollar on the unofficial market, weakened further.

European capitals urged restraint. A spokesman for EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said the bloc “continues to view diplomacy as the only sustainable path” and warned that fresh sanctions could undermine efforts to free European nationals held in Iranian prisons. Britain and France are pushing for a UN Security Council meeting, though diplomats doubt any resolution can pass given veto threats from Russia and China.

Israel, which has pressed Washington to act, praised the step. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called Trump “a true friend” and said Israel “stands ready to assist in enforcement, including intelligence and interdiction at sea.”

Russia signaled it would help Tehran evade measures. Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said Moscow and Beijing “will coordinate to minimize the illegal economic pressure the United States intends to apply.”

Background

The 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action capped Iran’s enrichment at 3.67 percent purity, shipped out 98 percent of its enriched uranium and placed cameras inside centrifuge halls. UN inspectors certified Tehran’s compliance until Trump withdrew, arguing the accord failed to address ballistic missiles or regional militias. European signatories tried to keep trade flowing through a barter mechanism known as INSTEX, but most firms faced secondary sanctions and pulled out.

Iran waited a year before starting to breach limits. It has since begun enriching uranium to 60 percent, close to weapons-grade, and installed IR-6 centrifuges that enrich several times faster than the IR-1 models allowed under the agreement. The International Atomic Energy Agency estimates the country’s breakout time — the period needed to produce enough fissile material for one bomb — has fallen to around 12 days, down from more than a year under the deal.

What’s Next

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent must finalize the new sanctions package within 30 days, officials said. Talks with Gulf allies on joint maritime patrols begin in Riyadh next week, and Trump is expected to address Iran during a February 15 speech to conservative activists. Iranian lawmakers have scheduled a closed session for Sunday to review counter-measures, including legislation that could bar UN inspectors from visiting undeclared sites.

The gamble puts two entrenched positions on collision course weeks before Iran’s own presidential election. If Tehran accelerates enrichment further, Trump may face the choice of ordering air strikes on hardened underground sites or accepting a nuclear-capable Iran — a dilemma his own first term never forced him to resolve.