Iran war live: Trump warns of attacks as Hormuz deal deadline nears

Iran war: Trump issues 48-hour strike warning as Hormuz talks collapse

Muhammad Asghar | GlobalBeat

President Donald Trump warned Iran of imminent US military action within 48 hours after Tehran rejected a last-minute proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to international shipping.

The White House issued the ultimatum at 11:47 p.m. EST after Iranian negotiators walked out of emergency talks in Muscat, leaving a Monday deadline for maritime access hanging by a thread. Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One that “all options are on the table” and confirmed Pentagon strike packages had been briefed to regional allies.

The breakdown ends a frantic 72-hour diplomatic scramble that began when Iran’s Revolutionary Guards seized 2 tankers and mined the approaches to the strategic waterway, choking off 21 percent of global oil supply. Brent crude surged $18 to $124 a barrel in Asian trade while the Pentagon moved a second carrier group into the northern Arabian Sea.

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer convened an emergency COBRA session at 3 a.m. London time and later told broadcasters that Britain “will not stand idle” if commercial vessels continue to be targeted. French President Emmanuel Macron activated the EU’s naval mission ATALANTA and ordered the helicopter carrier Tonnerre to sail from Toulon within 24 hours. China’s foreign ministry urged restraint but stopped short of condemning its sanctions-hit ally, instead blaming “unilateral US economic pressure” for the crisis.

Trump’s warning marks the sharpest escalation since he ordered the 2020 drone strike that killed Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said the president has approved “pre-cleared targets” including Hormuz coastal radar sites, Revolutionary Guards naval bases at Bandar Abbas and Qeshm Island, and the underground missile facility at Khorramabad. A senior US official, speaking on condition of anonymity, told GlobalBeat that cyber teams have already implanted logic bombs inside Iran’s port-control network, ready to trigger if commercial traffic is not restored.

Iran’s mission to the United Nations responded with a terse 2-sentence statement: “The Islamic Republic will not bow to gunboat diplomacy. Any attack will meet a decisive answer across the region.” State television aired footage of missile barges dispersing inside the strait while the navy test-fired a new submarine-launched cruise missile it claimed can hit Israel. Parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf vowed that “if our oil cannot flow, nobody’s will,” a threat interpreted by analysts as readiness to sink empty supertankers to block the 21-mile-wide channel entirely.

Oil markets are pricing in a 3-week closure. Goldman Sachs warned clients that sustained disruption could push Brent past $150, adding 60 cents to average US gasoline prices within a month. Japan, which imports 94 percent of its crude via Hormuz, released 9 days of strategic stockpile and asked Saudi Arabia for extra term cargoes loaded at the Red Sea port of Yanbu. India’s oil minister Hardeep Singh Puri called an emergency refinery meeting and placed the navy on standby to escort incoming tankers via the longer Cape of Good Hope route, a detour that adds 14 days and $2.3 million per voyage.

Shipping giant Maersk immediately suspended all Hormuz transits and diverted 42 vessels already en route, rerouting them around Africa. The company handles roughly 16 percent of container traffic through the chokepoint; rival MSC followed within an hour. Insurance rates for voyages to the Gulf jumped to 5 percent of hull value from 0.15 percent yesterday, effectively pricing smaller independent owners out of the market. Marine tracker Lloyd’s List Intelligence estimates daily losses at $340 million in freight revenue alone.

Pentagon officials said the strike plan presented to Trump would open with a 90-minute wave of Tomahawk cruise missiles and stealth bomber sorties aimed at degrading Iran’s layered coastal defenses. The goal, one planner explained, is to “restore freedom of navigation without pushing Tehran into a full regional war,” though analysts warn Hezbollah and Yemen’s Houthis have both threatened reprisals against Israel and Red Sea shipping if Iran is hit. Social media videos from Beirut’s southern suburbs overnight showed truck convoys ferrying rockets toward the Israeli frontier; Israel’s military raised its northern command alert and authorized limited civilian evacuations.

Background

The Strait of Hormuz has been a geopolitical flashpoint since the 1980s Tanker War, when Iran and Iraq attacked 546 commercial vessels, prompting US-led Operation Earnest Will to escort re-flagged Kuwaiti tankers. Washington maintains a near-permanent carrier presence in the Gulf region under its 5th Fleet based in Bahrain, a policy continued through Republican and Democratic administrations alike. Tehran views the narrow channel as its primary strategic leverage: supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has repeatedly said that if Iran cannot export oil due to sanctions, “others will face difficulties” exporting theirs.

US-Iran tensions escalated sharply after Trump withdrew from the 2015 nuclear deal, known as the JCPOA, in 2018 and imposed “maximum pressure” sanctions that have slashed Iranian oil exports from 2.5 million barrels a day to under 400,000. Previous confrontations include Iran’s downing of a $130 million US Global Hawk drone in June 2019 and the September missile-and-drone assault on Saudi Aramco facilities that briefly knocked out 5 percent of global supply. Analysts say Iran’s current gamble appears designed to force Washington to ease sanctions in exchange for maritime security, mirroring the 2015 negotiations that delivered sanctions relief in return for curbs on Tehran’s nuclear program.

What’s Next

Diplomats have penciled in a Monday noon deadline for Iranian compliance, after which the White House must decide whether to execute promised strikes or allow another extension. All eyes now turn to Oman’s Sultan, who has offered to host a 6-nation mediating committee, and to Moscow, Tehran’s main diplomatic backer at the UN Security Council where Russia can veto any resolution authorizing force. If conflict erupts, Congress must be notified under the 1973 War Powers Act, and lawmakers return Tuesday from recess, setting up a potential weekend vote on authorization amid a heated mid-term campaign season.

The next 48 hours will signal whether the world is heading toward a contained naval skirmish or a wider Middle Eastern war that sucks in Israel, Gulf monarchies and global energy markets. Traders are already pricing Brent crude call options at $200 a barrel for August delivery, while US European Command has told American citizens to avoid travel to the UAE and Bahrain. With both Trump and Iran’s leadership facing domestic pressures, the risk of miscalculation remains high, and every tanker skipper in the Arabian Sea is now a potential chess piece in a bigger power play.