US-Iran talks: What’s the latest on mediation efforts?

US-Iran talks stall as Muscat pushes direct Vienna meeting

Muhammad Asghar | GlobalBeat

Oman’s foreign minister left Tehran early Tuesday without securing Iranian consent to meet US envoys face-to-face next week.

Muscat wants both delegations in Vienna on 18 April, the same venue used for the 2015 nuclear accord, but Foreign Minister Badr al-Busaidi told reporters at Mehrabad airport “we are still exchanging ideas, not setting dates.”

Washington and Tehran have not negotiated directly since President Donald Trump abandoned the JCPOA in 2018. A year of US-registered back-channel messages through Qatar and now Oman has produced only a temporary prisoner swap and unwritten rules limiting Iranian uranium enrichment to 60 pct. European diplomats warn the window for a broader deal is narrowing ahead of the US election cycle; Iran’s June presidential vote could harden the line in Tehran if conservatives recapture the post that sets nuclear policy.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio confirmed Monday that Washington seeks “a limited, enforceable arrangement that keeps breakout time at 12 months” and lifts oil export sanctions in phases. Speaking in Riyadh after a Gulf Cooperation Council meeting, Rubio said “the Islamic Republic must de-escalate regionally and dismantle parts of its centrifuge cascade,” a demand Tehran’s envoy to the UN, Amir Saeid Iravani, rejected hours later as “humiliating capitulation dressed as diplomacy.” Iranian state television broadcast Iravani’s letter to the Security Council in which he insisted any accord must “recognize Iran’s right to enrichment in perpetuity and guarantee no re-imposition of sanctions under new pretexts.”

Tehran’s calculus has shifted since Israeli strikes disabled portions of the centrifuge halls at Fordow last December, according to two Western intelligence briefings shared with GlobalBeat. While Iran responded by shipping additional cascades to an underground site near Natanz, the attack convinced senior security officials that further clandestine expansion risks more devastating Israeli action. “They want sanctions relief, but not at the cost of appearing bullied,” a European diplomat tracking the talks said, asking anonymity because the discussions are private. The diplomat added that Iran privately offered to cap enrichment at 5 pct, close to JCPOA limits, in return for releasing $20 billion in frozen overseas funds and Washington issuing a non-binding pledge against future punitive measures.

The Biden administration held parallel negotiations in 2022 that collapsed after Iran demanded guarantees no future US president could renege, a promise the White House said was constitutionally impossible to give. Trump’s team now argues the same legal reality applies, but his negotiators, led by veteran arms-control envoy Marshall Billingslea, say language can be found that “puts a very heavy political price” on renewed sanctions while stopping short of congressional codification. Senate Foreign Relations Committee chair Jim Risch, a Republican, warned in an April 9 letter that any deal failing to submit lifting sanctions to Congress “will be dismantled the morning after inauguration day 2029,” a message clearly intended for Tehran.

Muscat’s leverage rests on geography and history. Oman hosted the secret US-Iran talks that paved the way for the JCPOA and retains friendly relations with both capitals. Sultan Haitham bin Tarik dispatched al-Busaidi twice to Tehran since February and opened a secure hotline between the foreign ministries in March, Iranian officials disclosed. Yet, analysts say, Oman cannot force a reluctant Iran into a room with Americans it still labels “Great Satan.” Mehran Kamrava, professor at Georgetown University in Qatar, said Muscat’s role “is messenger, not mediator,” adding that “Oman can shuttle paper, but only Washington and Tehran can decide if the paper is worth signing.”

Washington’s Gulf allies, who watched Iranian-made drones strike Saudi oil facilities in 2019, want a deal tough enough to curb Tehran’s missile program that can hit their capitals. Riyadh and Abu Dhabi have quietly backed the Omani channel, Gulf officials told GlobalBeat, provided any lifting of oil sanctions is phased so Iranian barrels do not flood the market. Brent crude slid 3.3 pct Monday after rumours of a partial agreement, underscoring traders’ sensitivity to additional Iranian supply that could reach 1 million barrels per day if Washington allows buyers in China, India and Turkey to resume purchases without fear of secondary sanctions.

Inside Iran the domestic audience is wary. Inflation hovers just below 40 pct and the rial has lost 25 pct of its value since January, hammered by the prospect of tighter enforcement of existing sanctions that already choke oil exports to roughly 800,000 bpd, half the pre-2018 level. President Masoud Pezeshkian, who campaigned on economic revival through diplomacy, is under pressure from parliament to show concrete gains before June elections. Hard-line opponent and former nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili told a rally Tuesday that “surrender negotiations will invite more pressure,” a line that resonates with Iranians who saw previous talks fail to deliver lasting relief.

Background

The JCPOA, agreed in July 2015 between Iran and the P5+1 group, limited Tehran’s enrichment capacity to 5,060 first-generation centrifuges for 10 years in return for lifting UN, US and EU nuclear-related sanctions that had halved Iranian oil exports. Trump withdrew in May 2018, re-imposing sanctions and launching a “maximum pressure” campaign. Iran responded a year later by breaching enrichment and stockpile limits every 60 days; by November 2022 inspectors reported 60 pct enrichment, close to weapons-grade. Indirect US-Iran talks resumed after Biden took office but stalled over Tehran’s demand for guarantees; Trump’s return has reopened a channel through Oman, reviving the very format he once mocked as weak.

Oman’s ties to both sides stretch back to the 1980-88 Iran-Iraq war when Sultan Qaboos kept channels open, enabling Tehran to purchase US spare parts via Muscat. The sultanate’s neutrality helped secure the release of three American hikers detained by Iran in 2009-10 and later hosted secret talks starting in 2013 that led to the 2015 accord. Its geographic position on the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of traded oil passes, gives Oman a vested interest in preventing conflict that could close the waterway and devastate its economy dependent on regional trade.

What’s Next

Oman will relay Iran’s latest amendments to Washington by weekend; if both sides accept to meet, technical teams could open Vienna talks on 18 April, diplomats said. Iran’s statement Wednesday that it plans to install additional IR-6 centrifuges at Natanz adds urgency. European officials warn that without progress before May, when inspectors issue their quarterly report, the board of governors could refer Tehran to the Security Council for non-compliance, resurrecting UN sanctions that were lifted under the JCPOA.

Whether Trump signs off on phased oil waivers depends on how far Iran backs down on enrichment language, but the bigger gamble is political at home as his party fractures between deal-skeptical hawks and lawmakers eyeing cheaper gasoline. Iran must decide if a limited sanction reprieve today outweighs the risk of being portrayed as caving to American pressure tomorrow, a choice one Iranian diplomat summed up as “the negotiation we hate versus the war we can’t afford.” Anyone watching the Gulf should keep an eye on those Vienna hotels; the rooms are booked, but nobody has checked in yet.