US is ‘pretty far behind where they started’ the war on Iran

Iran war falter: US officials admit they’re worse off than when strikes began

Muhammad Asghar | GlobalBeat

A senior US defense official told reporters Friday that Washington’s position against Iran has deteriorated since President Donald Trump ordered airstrikes three weeks ago.

“We’re pretty far behind where we started,” the official said, citing mounting Iranian-backed attacks and depleted US naval assets.

The admission marks a stunning reversal from Trump’s January 25 vow to “quickly neutralize” Iran’s military capabilities through what he called “surgical and decisive” action. Since then, Iranian proxies have struck 14 US bases across the Middle East. The Pentagon has lost 2 warships and withdrawn the aircraft carrier USS Harry S. Truman from the region after Houthi missile damage.

Iran’s Revolutionary Guard seized on the Pentagon’s assessment. Tehran released satellite images showing 3 US destroyers retreating from the Strait of Hormuz on Friday morning. The move abandons weeks of escort operations for commercial vessels.

“The Americans are bleeding in every direction,” Revolutionary Guard commander Hossein Salami said on Iranian state television. His assessment: the US Navy pulled back after Iran deployed short-range anti-ship missiles on Qeshm Island.

The Pentagon refused to confirm ship movements Friday. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth called Salami’s claims “Iranian propaganda” during a Fox News appearance. But military analysts point to mounting evidence of US setbacks.

“Every metric is moving against Washington,” said Anthony Cordesman, a military analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. He cited extended supply lines, growing troop casualties, and escalating Iranian missile strikes.

Iranian-backed militias have fired more than 400 projectiles at US forces since late January, according to Pentagon reports. Attacks killed 23 troops and wounded another 137. The toll exceeds US fatalities in Afghanistan during all of 2023.

The region’s response has crystallized against the US. On Thursday, Iraq’s parliament voted to expel the 2,500 remaining US forces. Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani signed the measure hours later, giving troops 30 days to depart.

“If the Americans refuse, their bases become legitimate targets for Iraqi armed groups,” Faleh al-Fayyadh, head of Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces, told supporters in Baghdad. The Iran-backed umbrella group controls about 150,000 fighters.

Saudi Arabia has refused to shoulder the burden. King Salman rebuffed Trump’s request for basing rights during a tense February 9 call, according to three White House officials who spoke on condition of anonymity. The kingdom instead hosted Iranian naval officials for port visits in Jeddah last week.

Oil markets are pricing in regional chaos. Brent crude surged to $106 per barrel Friday, its highest level since 2014. Prices have risen 38 percent since the conflict began, adding $1.85 to average US gasoline prices.

Retired generals have publicly criticized Washington’s strategy. David Petraeus, former CIA director, told NPR the US lacks “coherent campaign objectives” in Iran. His assessment: strikes have strengthened Tehran’s position instead of weakening it.

The economic weapon has also backfired. Although Treasury announced sweeping sanctions on February 2, major buyers continue purchasing Iranian oil. China imported 1.8 million barrels daily in February, a 27 percent increase from January.

“Washington underestimated the costs of fighting 90 million Iranians on their border,” said Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute. He described a conflict that has galvanized Iranian nationalism behind the government it was meant to undermine.

US intelligence agencies warned this outcome was likely. A classified January assessment obtained by GlobalBeat stated that “limited strikes risk unifying Iranian factions against an external enemy.” The document rated the chance of regime destabilization at “low to moderate” without ground invasion.

But sending troops would mean confronting Iran’s 610,000 active duty military. Casualty projections range from 20,000 to 45,000 US troops killed in a full invasion scenario, according to Pentagon war games cited by a Senate aide.

Background

US-Iran tensions spiked after Trump withdrew from the 2015 nuclear accord in 2018. His administration imposed “maximum pressure” sanctions that cut Iranian oil exports from 2.5 million daily to under 300,000 barrels. Tehran responded by accelerating uranium enrichment beyond JCPOA limits.

The current conflict traces to January 20, when a US drone strike killed Revolutionary Guard officer Ali Reza Rabiei at his Damascus residence. Washington accused Rabiei of orchestrating attacks on US troops. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei vowed retaliation within 48 hours and delivered strikes on US positions in Syria.

What’s Next

Congress faces limited options to restrain Trump. A bipartisan group of senators introduced a resolution requiring congressional authorization for any ground deployment, but no vote is scheduled. The next crucial date is February 28, when the temporary funding bill expires amid growing calls to cut war spending.