Trump knocked off another Republican. Could his strategy backfire in midterms?

Trump Midterm Strategy Purges 4th GOP Incumbent as Backlash Mounts

Muhammad Asghar | GlobalBeat

President Donald Trump’s campaign has unseated another sitting Republican lawmaker, fueling concerns the tactic could depress turnout among moderate conservatives in November’s elections.

The latest victim, Representative Blake Moore of Utah, lost his primary Tuesday by 2,800 votes after Trump endorsed challenger Trent Staggs, a former mayor who echoed the president’s demand for mass deportations and a federal abortion ban.

Moore’s defeat brings to 4 the number of House Republicans Trump has knocked off this cycle, a purge that party strategists say risks branding the GOP as a personal fiefdom and alienating college-educated voters already uneasy about a second Trump term. The president has signalled he may target at least 6 more incumbents before filing deadlines close in August.

“We’re watching a hostile takeover in real time,” said Whit Ayres, a veteran Republican pollster. “When you replace experienced legislators with loyalty candidates, you increase the odds of November surprises.”

Trump’s intervention in safe Republican districts has so far succeeded in Indiana, North Carolina, South Carolina and now Utah, each time elevating little-known challengers who pledge blanket support for his agenda. None of the ousted lawmakers voted for impeachment; their sin was backing the $1.2 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill or criticizing Trump’s role in the January 6, 2021, Capitol attack.

Internal polling by the Republican Main Street Partnership, shared with GlobalBeat, shows 37 percent of self-described moderate Republicans in swing districts are “less enthusiastic” about voting after seeing incumbent purges. The survey of 800 voters, conducted May 14-16, found the slump highest among women with college degrees, a cohort that broke for Democrats by 18 points in 2022 midterms.

Trump remains popular with the base. A YouGov poll released Wednesday puts his favorability among registered Republicans at 78 percent, unchanged since March. Yet the same survey shows only 54 percent of independents view him favorably, down 6 points since February.

Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina told reporters the party needs both factions. “You can’t govern with just the MAGA wing,” Graham said. “We need suburban voters or we lose Pennsylvania and Michigan again.”

House Speaker Mike Johnson has so far stayed neutral, telling donors last week he “trusts the president’s judgment” while privately urging Trump not to expand the purge map, according to two attendees who requested anonymity to describe a closed-door session.

Democrats are amplifying the discontent. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee launched digital ads in 11 battleground districts titled “Your Republican Congressman Could Be Next,” portraying Trump as a kingmaker bent on retribution. Fundraising emails that mention the purge generated $4.3 million in small-dollar donations during the first two weeks of May, a DCCC aide said.

“Trent Staggs will vote exactly how Donald Trump tells him,” said Representative Suzan DelBene, chair of the DCCC. “Voters want independence, not puppets.”

The Club for Growth, a conservative economic group that has clashed with Trump, released a memo Wednesday warning that Staggs-style candidates underperform in general elections by an average of 5 percentage points compared with mainstream conservatives. The analysis examined 42 House races since 2018 where Trump endorsed a challenger who went on to lose the November vote.

Trump counters that loyalty guarantees results. At a rally in Salt Lake City last week he told thousands of supporters that “RINOs are worse than Democrats” and promised to campaign personally for every endorsed candidate. “We are cleaning house,” he declared.

The president’s team argues primary turnout, not internal polls, proves the strategy works. In Utah’s 1st District, 112,000 Republicans cast ballots Tuesday, up 38 percent from 2022. Trump aides say the surge shows energy that will benefit nominees in November.

Political scientists urge caution. “Primaries are dominated by the most ideological voters,” said Candice Nelson, an American University professor who studies midterm turnout. “What fires up the base can scare the center.”

Background

Since leaving office in 2021, Trump has sought to exert control over the Republican Party by targeting incumbents he deems disloyal. The effort began in 2022 when he endorsed primary challengers against 10 House Republicans who voted for impeachment; 4 lost re-nomination. This cycle he expanded the definition of betrayal to include votes for bipartisan spending bills or hearings investigating January 6.

The tactic has precedent. In 2010 and 2012, Tea Party activists ousted establishment favorites like Senator Bob Bennett of Utah, only to watch some hard-right nominees implode in November. Democrats gained Senate seats in Nevada, Colorado and Indiana after Republican primary voters chose untested conservatives.

Yet Trump commands a devoted following that earlier insurgents lacked. His endorsements drive fundraising, with challengers reporting average donation spikes of 400 percent within 48 hours of a Trump statement. The former president’s social-media posts reach more than 80 million followers across platforms, a megaphone that turns unknown candidates into contenders overnight.

What’s Next

Filing deadlines in Arizona, Nevada and Ohio close by July 5, giving Trump a narrow window to endorse additional challengers. Advisers say he is weighing interventions against Representatives David Schweikert, Don Bacon and Mike Carey, all of whom face Trump-aligned opponents. The president plans to announce decisions during a tele-rally scheduled for June 3, according to a campaign official.

Whether the purge strategy helps or hurts Republicans will become clear on November 3, when control of the House and 33 Senate seats are decided. Analysts say even a 2 percent drop in moderate turnout could flip districts in Pennsylvania, Michigan and California, where Democrats lost by single digits in 2022 and are targeting rematches.