Geopolitics

Vance warns Iran against ‘trying to play’ US as he heads to Pakistan for peace talks

Vance cautions Iran against manipulation before Pakistan talks on Afghan-Taliban relations.

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Vance warns Iran: US vice president threatens retaliation ahead of Pakistan peace summit

By Muhammad Asghar | GlobalBeat

US Vice President JD Vance issued a sharp warning to Iran on Monday as he departed for Pakistan to mediate regional peace talks, declaring Tehran “should not try to play” Washington amid escalating tensions over Iran’s nuclear program.

The warning came hours after Iranian officials indicated they would accelerate uranium enrichment if European powers triggered a sanctions mechanism, a move Vance said would cross “a very clear red line” for the Trump administration.

Vance’s Pakistan trip, his first to South Asia since taking office, seeks to revive stalled negotiations between Iran and Gulf Arab states over maritime security and proxy conflicts in Yemen and Syria. The vice president told reporters aboard Air Force Two that Iran’s recent behavior risked “closing the window” for diplomatic solutions.

The vice president’s language marked a notable escalation from previous administration statements. Speaking to reporters at Joint Base Andrews, Vance said that “Iran needs to understand that the United States under President Trump will not tolerate being manipulated or deceived.” He referenced what he called “a pattern of Iranian escalations” over the past three months, including alleged weapons transfers to Houthi rebels and attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi responded swiftly, telling state television that “the Islamic Republic will not surrender to threats” and accusing Washington of “economic terrorism” through sanctions that have crippled Iran’s oil exports. The exchange underscored the fragility of regional stability as Pakistan attempts to position itself as a neutral mediator.

Pakistani officials have arranged for Vance to meet separately with Iranian and Saudi delegations in Islamabad over three days, though direct talks between the rivals remain unlikely. Islamabad’s Foreign Ministry confirmed that “confidence-building measures” would focus on maritime security cooperation and reducing support for proxy militias across the region.

The timing of Vance’s warning appeared linked to intelligence reports suggesting Iran had moved additional centrifuges to its underground Fordow facility. A senior administration official, speaking on condition of anonymity, told GlobalBeat that “we have seen activity consistent with preparations for 90 percent enrichment,” referring to weapons-grade levels that Iran has never publicly achieved.

European diplomats expressed concern about the deteriorating situation, with one telling reporters that “the nuclear deal is essentially dead, but we need to prevent complete collapse into conflict.” France and Britain have warned they might invoke the 2015 agreement’s dispute resolution mechanism, which could restore United Nations sanctions within 65 days.

The economic toll of heightened tensions has already hit global oil markets, with Brent crude rising 2.8 percent to $78.40 per barrel following Vance’s remarks. Iran’s currency, the rial, dropped to a new low of 610,000 against the dollar on the unofficial market, accelerating a slide that has seen it lose 15 percent of its value since January.

Regional analysts questioned whether Pakistan could effectively mediate given its own economic crisis and complex relationships with both Iran and Saudi Arabia. “Islamabad needs financial support from Gulf states but also wants to maintain ties with Tehran for energy cooperation,” said Dr. Ayesha Siddiqa, a Pakistani security analyst. “They’re walking a tightrope that gets thinner every day.”

Background

Iran’s nuclear program has sparked international tensions since 2002, when opposition groups revealed secret facilities at Natanz and Aragh. The 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, brokered under the Obama administration, limited Iran’s enrichment activities in exchange for sanctions relief. Trump withdrew from the agreement in 2018, reimposing severe economic sanctions that have cut Iranian oil exports from 2.5 million barrels daily to under 500,000.

Pakistan has historically maintained cordial relations with both Iran and Saudi Arabia despite their regional rivalry. The country shares a 900-kilometer border with Iran and has faced its own challenges with sectarian violence linked to proxy conflicts. Previous Pakistani attempts to mediate between Saudi Arabia and Iran in 2016 and 2019 yielded limited results, though officials hope Vance’s involvement will add American leverage to current efforts.

What’s Next

Vance’s delegation will remain in Islamabad through Thursday, with Pakistani officials hoping to announce preliminary agreements on maritime security coordination. Iranian officials have indicated willingness to discuss reducing support for Houthi forces in Yemen if Washington offers sanctions relief, though the Trump administration has publicly rejected any linkage between regional behavior and nuclear concessions. European powers face a March 15 deadline to decide whether to trigger the dispute resolution mechanism, a move that could escalate tensions further.

The vice president’s warning signals a tougher American stance that could reshape regional dynamics if Iran proceeds with enrichment expansion. With Pakistan’s mediation efforts hanging in the balance, the next 72 hours may determine whether diplomatic channels remain viable or whether the region slides toward another confrontation.

Muhammad Asghar
Senior Correspondent, World & Geopolitics

Muhammad Asghar covers international affairs, conflict zones, and US foreign policy for GlobalBeat. He has reported on events across the Middle East, South Asia, and Eastern Europe, with a focus on the intersection of diplomacy and armed conflict. He has been writing wire-service journalism for over a decade.