Flower extinction map reveals climate migration Hotspots

Muhammad Asghar | GlobalBeat

Scientists tracking 1,480 wildflower species across North America documented 217 that shifted altitude or latitude since 1978 to escape warming.

Half the migrating plants already face genetic bottlenecks that put them at risk of extinction within 50 years, according to a University of Arizona study released Tuesday.

The flowers moved an average of 5.6 feet upslope each year and 1.1 miles northward. Populations unable to keep pace with temperature increases are declining at 3 percent annually.

Researchers warned in the journal Nature Climate Change that plants with restricted habitat tolerance are losing genetic diversity. This erosion cripples future resilience.

Species now confined to smaller areas experience a 39 percent decline in gene flow, compared with just 11 percent for species that successfully relocated, the team concluded.

University of Arizona plant geneticist Kate Erickson called the data the first to show how climate change directly drives genetic extinction risk before habitat completely disappears. She spoke at a press conference on Tuesday.

The researchers analyzed 82 herbarium collections. They also drew on citizen-sourced iNaturalist photos spanning five decades.

Erickson said the same fingerprint will spread to crops and trees that rely on outcrossing to maintain disease resistance and yield.

Agricultural experts highlighted coffee and cocoa. Each depends on wild genetic pools, raising supply chain concerns for commodities worth more than $40 billion globally.

The United Nations climate panel lists genetic diversity extinction among the least studied drivers of biodiversity collapse.

Current models underestimate extinction risk by pretending all populations can relocate freely, the University of Arizona paper argued.

Botanical gardens announced plans to create a genomic seed vault within three years. It will target the 30 percent of native species most vulnerable to limited dispersal.

California authorities tracked the orange bush monkey flower as a case study. The plant moved uphill, but offspring showed 20 percent lower seed output because parents spread across fragmented chaparral, ecologists at the California Academy of Sciences reported.

Background

Climate-linked migrations have been recorded since the 1980s when researchers first traced Edith’s checkerspot butterflies shifting northward in California. Plants move more slowly, so evidence lagged until molecular tools uncovered hidden losses.

The UN biodiversity convention targeted genetic diversity retention in its 2022 framework, yet funding for plant genomes lags behind that for animals. Wild relatives of crops receive just 0.4 percent of conservation budgets, according to the Crop Trust.

What’s Next

The U.S. Department of Agriculture will evaluate the findings before deciding whether to reclassify 38 native wild relatives of major food crops under federal protection rules. A decision is expected in early 2025.

Conservation groups say the study justifies expanding wildlife corridors along mountain ranges. They plan to lobby for extra funding in the next Farm Bill.