Live updates: US and Iran prepare for talks as Strait of Hormuz remains restricted

# US Iran talks: Trump team to meet Tehran as Hormuz blockade enters week 3
*Muhammad Asghar | GlobalBeat*

Iranian and U.S. delegations will hold their first face-to-face meeting in Muscat on Tuesday after Tehran kept the Strait of Hormuz closed to Western tankers for 20 straight days, officials from both capitals confirmed.

The talks, brokered by Oman, aim to lift Iran’s self-declared “military exclusion zone” that has choked off 20 percent of the world’s seaborne oil shipments since March 19, driving Brent crude above $96 a barrel.

Washington and Tehran have not held direct negotiations since President Donald Trump reimposed “maximum pressure” sanctions in 2018, and the upcoming session signals the White House wants to avoid a naval showdown weeks before the mid-term elections. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard seized 2 British-owned vessels last week and mines damaged a Japanese tanker, prompting the Pentagon to deploy a second carrier group to the Gulf.

The Iranian delegation will be led by Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, while Deputy National Security Adviser Alexander Gray heads the U.S. team, both governments announced late Monday. Iranian state television said the Islamic Republic would demand “verifiable sanctions relief” before reopening the waterway; Trump wrote on Truth Social that “nothing will be paid for passage” and warned Iran of “unseen firepower” already in position.

### Reactions

Oil markets steadied overnight on the news, with Brent futures slipping 1.8 percent to $94.70 after touching a 10-month high. Lloyd’s List Intelligence reported 47 laden tankers idling outside the strait, down from 53 on Sunday, implying some owners are rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope — a 14-day detour that adds $2 million in fuel costs per very-large-crude-carrier. Shipping giant Maersk told clients it will suspend new Gulf bookings “until concrete safe-passage terms are published.”

European capitals reacted coolly. Britain’s Foreign Office called the talks “a first, narrow step” and demanded release of the flagged vessels Stena Impero and Pacific Voyager. Germany’s Chancellor Friedrich Merz urged both sides to “restore freedom of navigation under international law,” while France floated an EU naval observation mission that would exclude U.S. ships to preserve neutrality.

### Timeline

Tensions spiked March 19 when Iran’s navy broadcast a radio order declaring the strait “closed to hostile shipping” after a U.S. Treasury freeze on $6 billion in previously released Iranian oil funds. Over the next 72 hours, speedboats operated by the Revolutionary Guard harassed 14 merchant vessels and boarded five, according to U.S. Fifth Fleet logs. On March 24, a limpet mine exploded off the starboard hull of the Japanese-owned Kokuka Courageous; crew members reported seeing “flying objects” before the blast, echoing attacks in 2019 that Washington blamed on Tehran. Iranian officials denied responsibility and called the incident “suspicious.”

### Casualties and Damage

No sailors have been killed, but a Filipino seafarer suffered shrapnel wounds and was medevaced to a U.S. destroyer, the Navy said. The Kokuka Courageous is anchored off Fujairah with a 3-meter gash above the waterline; owner Kokuka Sangyo estimates repairs at $12 million. The two seized British ships remain anchored in Bandar Abbas; their 46 crew have been questioned but not charged, Iran’s Ports Organisation stated.

### Diplomatic Response

China, the largest buyer of Iranian crude, offered to mediate, with Foreign Minister Wang Yi hosting back-channel envoys from both sides in Beijing last week, three diplomatic sources told GlobalBeat. Russia advocated removing Gulf security from “Anglo-Saxon dominance” and proposed expanding a Moscow-led Caspian naval group, a plan the Pentagon dismissed as “unserious.” United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres appealed for restraint, warning any clash “could push energy prices into triple digits and devastate developing economies.”

### Economic Impact

JP Morgan analysts estimate the strait closure has removed 17 million barrels per day from the market, pushing gasoline in the United States to a national average of $4.11 a gallon, up 41 cents in three weeks. India, Iran’s second-largest customer, activated a strategic reserve release of 5 million barrels and cut excise duty on fuel to calm inflation running at 5.4 percent. Saudi Arabia pledged to raise output by 500,000 bpd in May, but traders doubt Aramco can pump much more without risking field damage. European refiners have turned to U.S. shale, lifting American crude exports to a record 4.6 million bpd.

### Military Detail

The Pentagon now has two carrier strike groups within striking distance: the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower in the northern Arabian Sea and the USS Theodore Roosevelt entering the Gulf of Oman, together carrying about 120 F/A-18 fighters, officials confirmed. A battery of MIM-104 Patriot missiles landed in Kuwait on Saturday to bolster bases hosting 13,000 U.S. troops. Satellite imagery reviewed by GlobalBeat shows Iranian Revolutionary Guard fast boats dispersed under camouflage nets near Qeshm Island, suggesting preparations for swarm tactics that proved effective in past drills.

### What Comes Next

Omani mediators have set a 48-hour deadline for an initial “humanitarian corridor” agreement that would allow food and medical supplies into the Gulf, Oman’s Foreign Ministry stated. If talks collapse, European diplomats fear Trump could order a naval escort operation under Article 22 of the U.N. Convention — a move Tehran labels “an act of war.” Analysts at Eurasia Group assign a 35 percent probability to limited strikes on Iranian shore batteries by May if oil tops $110 and U.S. gasoline averages $4.50.

## Background

The Strait of Hormuz, only 33 km wide at its narrowest, has been a choke-point since the 1980s “Tanker War” when Iraq and Iran attacked 451 vessels, pushing crude prices to then-record levels. Under international law, the waterway is an Iranian territorial strait but subject to a transit-passage regime that bans unilateral closure.

Relations soured after Trump withdrew from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, reimposing sanctions that have cut Tehran’s oil exports from 2.5 million bpd to about 450,000. Iran responded by breaching enrichment limits and seizing or harassing at least 15 foreign ships since 2019, actions the U.S. Navy has largely deterred by escorting convoys.

## What’s Next

Both sides must decide by Friday whether to extend the Muscat talks; Iran wants the unfrozen $6 billion returned to Qatari banks and a pledge that sanctions will not snap back, Reuters quoted an Iranian briefing note. The White House, facing pressure from Congress, is likely to offer partial waivers for humanitarian goods first and demand a monitored reopening that photographs every tanker’s hull to verify no smuggling. Failure would leave the world bracing for a summer of $100 oil and potential missile exchanges in an artery that carries a fifth of its energy.

The election calendar adds urgency; high pump prices historically hurt incumbent parties. Trump’s team has 60 days before Congress breaks for campaigning — a narrow window to secure a deal or frame Iran as the villain if talks founder, campaign strategists told GlobalBeat.