Live updates: US-Iran ceasefire appears to hold despite Lebanon strikes and restricted Strait of Hormuz

US Iran ceasefire holds after 48-hour extension despite naval clashes near Hormuz

Muhammad Asghar | GlobalBeat

The US-Iran ceasefire held into its third day Tuesday even after American warships fired warning shots at Iranian patrol boats restricting traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a flash-point shipping lane that carries one-fifth of global oil supplies.

The White House confirmed the limited naval exchange but said President Donald Trump had approved a further 48-hour truce extension late Monday, pushing the fragile pause past the original 72-hour deadline. The extension followed urgent calls from European and Gulf capitals warning that any resumption of strikes risked dragging the region into open war.

The standoff began March 31 when US jets struck Islamic Revolutionary Guard facilities in western Iran, killing 19 Guards members. Tehran responded with a barrage of ballistic missiles that wrecked hangars at Al-Udeid air base in Qatar, injuring 27 American airmen. Each side blamed the other for the first direct state-on-state clash since the 1988 Tanker War.

Rear Admiral Sean Boyle, speaking aboard the aircraft carrier USS Dwight D. Eisenhower in the Gulf of Oman, told reporters that two IRGC patrol craft approached within 300 meters of the destroyer USS Laboon at dawn Tuesday. “We fired three bursts from a 50-caliber gun across the bow. They altered course and withdrew. No one was hurt,” Boyle said. Iranian state television later aired footage purporting to show the same boats shadowing a Liberian-flagged tanker, but did not mention the US warning shots.

Oil markets shrugged off the incident. Brent crude fell 42 cents to $83.16 a barrel as traders bet that both governments wanted to avoid a wider fight. Yet insurers in London raised war-risk premiums for tankers sailing north of Fujairah by 15 percent, adding roughly $130,000 to the cost of a typical voyage to Japan.

In Beirut, Israeli jets struck a Hezbollah arms depot overnight, killing 4 people including two Syrian nationals. The Lebanese army said 11 Israeli missiles entered its airspace, but made no mention of Iranian personnel. A senior Israeli official told GlobalBeat the raid was “not coordinated” with Washington and insisted it did not violate the US-Iran ceasefire because “Iranian proxies are a separate track.” Tehran’s foreign ministry condemned the strikes as “a dangerous escalation that tests American resolve.”

On Capitol Hill, Senate Majority Leader John Thune said lawmakers were briefed late Monday by CIA Director John Ratcliffe. “The intelligence picture is fluid. The Iranians have not removed missiles from launchers along the coast,” Thune told reporters. Asked whether Congress would vote on war powers, he replied, “We are preparing contingency language, but the president has made clear his preference for a limited outcome.”

European diplomats pressed both sides to lengthen the pause indefinitely. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz telephoned Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei Sunday, the first direct call between Berlin and Tehran since 2021. A German government read-out said Merz offered “temporary sanctions relief on medical goods” in exchange for Iran keeping its missiles in their garrisons for two weeks. Iranian state media quoted Khamenei as telling Merz that “America must lift all economic warfare first.”

Inside Iran, state television broadcast footage of burnt hangars at Kermanshah air base but skipped images of the Guards’ funerals, apparently wary of stoking public anger. Tehran residents reported sporadic anti-government slogans at several bazaars Monday before security forces arrived. “People are exhausted. They blame both America and their own rulers for the crisis,” a merchant in the Grand Bazaar told GlobalBeat by phone, asking not to be named.

Washington has given no official estimate of Iranian casualties, but private satellite firms released photos showing at least 14 destroyed buildings at three Guards bases. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth claimed Monday that the initial US sorties “eliminated 23 percent of Iran’s long-range rocket inventory,” a figure that could not be independently verified. Iranian Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Naqdi dismissed the claim as “fantasy” but offered no alternate data.

A key unknown is whether the IRGC’s regional militias will abide by the truce. In Baghdad, the armed faction Kataib Hezbanya announced a temporary halt to drone attacks on US forces “out of respect for Iran’s leadership,” yet warned it could resume fire if the ceasefire collapses. Four Katyusha rockets struck a base housing US contractors near Erbil on Sunday night, causing damage but no injuries; no group claimed responsibility.

Shipping sources said around a dozen tankers have been waiting outside the strait since Iran declared it “may impose restricted passage” on Monday morning. The US Fifth Fleet escorted three tanker convoys through the waterway Tuesday, each ride taking roughly six hours. “Iranians radioed warnings, but they did not interfere,” a captain on the VLCC Seaways Lindsay told shipping agent GAC. Analysts estimate the delays have withheld 1.7 million barrels per day from markets, equal to roughly 1.5 percent of daily global demand.

Background

The latest flare-up stems from a March 15 roadside bombing in eastern Syria that killed 3 US soldiers. Washington blamed an Iran-backed militia and launched retaliatory strikes on militia sites in Iraq and Syria, killing 36 fighters. Iran denied involvement but hailed the deaths of “American occupiers.”

The two countries have danced on the edge of war since Trump withdrew from the 2015 nuclear accord and imposed sweeping sanctions that have halved Iranian oil exports. A series of tit-for-tat tanker seizures and drone incidents followed, culminating in January 2020 when a US drone killed IRGC Quds Force commander Qasem Soleimani at Baghdad airport. Iran responded by firing missiles at an Iraqi base, injuring more than 100 American troops.

What’s Next

Omani mediators have invited both delegations to Muscat on Wednesday for “proximity talks,” meaning the adversaries will sit in separate rooms while Gulf diplomats shuttle proposals. US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi are expected to attend. Western diplomats said the likeliest outcome is a phased de-escalation in which Iran halts missile readiness in exchange for Washington easing some banking sanctions, though any formal agreement could take weeks.

The immediate test is whether Iranian patrols ease pressure on Hormuz traffic and whether Israeli jets hold fire on Syria and Lebanon. If the strait reopens fully and no rockets fly before Thursday, traders predict oil could slip another $4 a barrel, shaving half a cent off American gasoline prices ahead of the summer driving season. Any fresh strike, however, risks snapping the fragile pause and pushing the region back toward a war neither side professes to want.