Live updates: Vance says ‘two can play’ blockade game as he accuses Iran of ‘economic terrorism’

Vance threatens Iran blockade response as Iran seizes third tanker in Gulf

Muhammad Asghar | GlobalBeat

Vice President JD Vance warned Iran that “two can play” the blockade game after Tehran’s Revolutionary Guards seized a third commercial tanker in the Strait of Hormuz within 72 hours.

Speaking aboard the USS Eisenhower in the Arabian Sea, Vance accused Iran of “economic terrorism” and said the United States was prepared to “choke off” Iranian oil exports if the tanker raids continued.

The latest seizure, the Liberian-flagged suezmax Richmond Voyager carrying Kuwaiti crude, pushed the value of captured cargo past $350 million and cut daily traffic through the vital chokepoint by 18 percent, shipping analysts said.

Previous incidents had already sent insurance rates for Gulf voyages surging 340 percent since Friday, according to the London-based International Transport Workers’ Federation.

Vance delivered his remarks hours after Pentagon cameras showed speedboats of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy circling the Richmond Voyager at 6:14 a.m. local time and forcing it toward Bandar Abbas. The ship’s 26 Indian and Pakistani crew members have not been heard from since, operator Trafigura confirmed.

“In the dead of night Iran hijacks civilian ships. That is piracy dressed up as policy,” Vance told reporters on the carrier’s flight deck. “We can play the same game. Iran exports 1.4 million barrels a day through this same waterway. That could stop tomorrow.”

He offered no details on how a U.S. blockade would work, but said President Donald Trump had signed a covert directive giving the Navy authority to “interdict vessels suspected of carrying Iranian oil” once a legal framework was finalized with allies.

The threat marks a sharp escalation from Washington’s initial response on Saturday, when Secretary of State Marco Rubio called the first tanker seizure “unacceptable” but urged “maximum diplomacy.” Tehran brushed off that warning and captured a second vessel, the Marshall-Islands flagged Stena Immaculate, on Sunday morning.

Iranian state television cited the Guards as saying both earlier ships had “violated maritime protocols,” a charge the owners deny. Authorities released video of armed troops descending from a helicopter onto the Stena Immaculate’s bridge, a maneuver analysts said copied the 2019 seizure of the British-flagged Stena Impero.

Oil markets lurched upward on the news. Brent crude leapt $4.82 to $93.40 a barrel, its highest since October, while West Texas Intermediate breached $89. Ship-tracking data showed at least 9 very-large-crude-carriers idling outside the strait, refusing to enter until insurers grant clearance.

“Every hour of delay burns $40,000 in charter costs,” said Anoop Singh, head of tanker research at Braemar ACM. “If this stretches past Friday, Asian refiners will start feeling the pinch.”

Japan, the world’s third-largest importer, receives 90 percent of its oil via Hormuz. Trade minister Takeaki Matsumoto told parliament Tuesday that Tokyo had asked Washington to exempt Japanese tankers from any retaliatory U.S. blockade. South Korea dispatched a destroyer to the region “to protect national shipping,” the defense ministry in Seoul announced.

China, Iran’s biggest oil customer, struck a cooler tone. Foreign-ministry spokeswoman Lin Jian urged “all parties to avoid steps that could complicate the regional situation,” but stopped short of criticizing Tehran. Beijing imported 1.1 million barrels a day from Iran last month, most of it discounted crude sold through shadow fleets to evade existing U.S. sanctions.

European powers warned the crisis risks torpedoing months of nuclear talks. The so-called E-3—Britain, France and Germany—had quietly revived negotiations with Iran this year after Trump walked away from the 2015 JCPOA accord in 2018. Diplomats told GlobalBeat that a European draft proposing limited sanctions relief in exchange for Iranian uranium caps was due to be presented in Muscat next week. “The tanker seizures blow that timetable apart,” one envoy said.

Iran’s mission to the United Nations in New York dismissed Vance’s remarks as “bluster.” In a written statement it said the Guards acted within “international anti-smuggling regulations” and warned that “any U.S. interference will meet a swift and decisive response.” The statement did not address why the Richmond Voyager, monitored by satellites for years as a lawful Kuwait-China run, was targeted.

Regional analysts see the tanker grabs as a calculated gambit ahead of U.S. elections in November. “Tehran watched Biden’s Democrats lose last year and wants to test how far Trump 2.0 will go,” said Ali Vaez, Iran project director at the International Crisis Group. “They remember 2019, when ship seizures pushed Britain, then Washington, into military escorts that eventually fizzled.”

The Pentagon has already moved significant force into the area. Besides the Eisenhower strike group, the guided-missile destroyers USS Mason and USS Paul Ignatius operate inside the strait, while a B-1 bomber task-force sits at Al-Udeid air base in Qatar. Defense officials told GlobalBeat the Navy has drawn up plans for a 48-hour convoy system to shepherd tankers, but wants political cover first.

Gulf Arab states fret about being caught in the middle. Kuwait’s cabinet held an emergency session Tuesday and announced it would reroute some exports through a newly opened pipeline to the port of Duqm on Oman’s Indian Ocean coast. The 900-km link can carry 500,000 barrels a day, enough to cushion Kuwait but far below regional needs.

Background

The Strait of Hormuz, only 21 nautical miles wide at its narrowest, carries 21 percent of globally traded oil and 25 percent of liquefied natural gas. Iran has threatened to close the waterway repeatedly since 1980, when Iraq’s invasion triggered the eight-year Iran-Iraq war that saw both sides attack shipping. Western navies began escorting tankers in 1987 under Operation Earnest Will, the largest naval convoy effort since World War II.

Tensions revived after Trump quit the nuclear deal and imposed “maximum pressure” sanctions that cut Iranian oil exports from 2.5 million barrels a day in 2018 to under 400,000 by 2020. Tehran responded by sabotaging six tankers and shooting down a U.S. drone in 2019, but halted the campaign when Biden took office and signaled a return to diplomacy.

What’s Next

The U.S. Treasury will brief allied envoys in Brussels on Thursday about possible secondary sanctions against Iranian oil buyers, a Treasury official said. Shipping insurers, meeting in London the same day, will decide whether to widen the Middle East war-risk zone, a move that would add $300,000 to the cost of each transit and effectively impose an economic blockade without a shot being fired.

Iran’s next move may depend on domestic politics. Hard-line lawmakers have demanded President Masoud Pezeshkian, elected in July on a reform platform, match his predecessor’s “resistance economy” posture. Parliament plans a closed debate on Wednesday that could authorize the Guards to expand ship seizures if the United States acts. “If they vote yes, expect a fourth tanker by the weekend,” a senior Iranian oil executive predicted.