Republicans have a Trump problem. We can’t keep ignoring it. | Opinion

Trump Republican problem: GOP loses 3 state legislatures as internal rift deepens

By Muhammad Asghar | GlobalBeat

Republicans surrendered control of three state legislatures in Tuesday’s special elections after Donald Trump publicly attacked the party’s candidate selection process.

The losses in Colorado, New Hampshire and Wisconsin mark the fifth consecutive cycle where Trump’s involvement coincided with GOP defeats in competitive races. Republican officials privately concede the former president’s demand for loyalty tests has alienated moderate voters.

Tuesday’s results extend a pattern visible since 2018. When Trump endorses primary candidates who embrace his election fraud claims, those nominees consistently underperform in general elections. The dynamic threatens Republican hopes of retaking the Senate next year and has already cost the party governorships in Arizona, Georgia and Pennsylvania.

“We’re watching a slow-motion collapse of the Republican brand outside deep-red territory,” said Sarah Longwell, a GOP strategist who conducts monthly focus groups with suburban voters. Her research shows college-educated Republicans abandoning the party at rates not seen since 2008. “These voters aren’t switching to Democrats. They’re becoming independents who vote against us.”

The Colorado House flipped to Democratic control after Republicans lost two suburban Denver districts. Both GOP candidates had pledged to “investigate” the 2020 election results. In Wisconsin, Republicans dropped a Senate seat after Trump’s preferred candidate defeated a mainstream conservative in the primary, then lost by 12 points to a Democrat who ran ads featuring the Republican’s statements about abortion bans.

Trump responded to the losses on his Truth Social platform Wednesday morning. “The RNC is run by losers who don’t understand how to win,” he wrote. “They keep pushing weak candidates who don’t fight.”

The Republican National Committee declined to comment on Trump’s statement. Chair Michael Whatley issued a brief statement Tuesday night saying the party would “learn from these results and come back stronger.”

Internal party data paints a grimmer picture. A confidential RNC memo obtained by GlobalBeat shows Republican candidates who denied the 2020 election results performed 18 points worse than those who didn’t discuss the election. The memo, circulated among major donors last month, warned that Trump’s legal troubles were “toxic” with moderate voters.

“Every time he posts about the trial, our numbers drop,” a senior RNC official said, requesting anonymity because they weren’t authorized to discuss internal polling. “But we can’t say that publicly. His supporters would burn the party down.”

The tension spills into candidate recruitment. Multiple Republican governors told Trump not to campaign in their states during 2024, fearing his presence would energize Democrats. The former president ignored their requests, holding rallies in Arizona and Georgia that drew thousands of supporters but also drove Democratic fundraising spikes.

Maine Senator Susan Collins became the latest Republican to publicly acknowledge the problem. “We need candidates who can win general elections, not just primaries,” she told reporters Tuesday. Collins avoided campaigning with Trump during her 2020 reelection and won by 9 points in a state he lost by 13.

The dynamic repeats across battleground states. In Georgia, Trump’s efforts to defeat Governor Brian Kemp backfired spectacularly. Kemp won reelection by 8 points while Trump’s hand-picked Senate candidate, Herschel Walker, lost to Democrat Raphael Warnock. Kemp’s victory came after he openly defied Trump’s demands to overturn the 2020 election results.

Republican donors increasingly fund primary challenges against Trump-aligned candidates. The Club for Growth, which spent $20 million opposing Trump during the 2016 primary, has launched a new PAC targeting House races where Trump loyalists threaten winnable seats. The group’s president, David McIntosh, said the strategy reflects “saving the Republican Party from itself.”

Democrats acknowledge benefiting from Republican divisions. “They’ve become so focused on litigating the past that they’ve forgotten how to appeal to the future,” said Jaime Harrison, chair of the Democratic National Committee. Harrison’s team runs ads in competitive districts featuring Trump’s most controversial statements, believing they drive independent voters toward Democrats.

The problem extends beyond elections. Republican policy priorities stall in Congress when Trump weighs in. A bipartisan immigration bill collapsed in February after Trump urged Republicans to reject it, claiming passage would help President Joe Biden. GOP senators privately fumed that rejecting tough border provisions hurt their credibility on immigration, traditionally a Republican strength.

Background

The Republican Party’s internal conflict intensified after Trump’s 2020 defeat. He spent his final months demanding loyalty from elected Republicans, culminating in the January 6 attack on the Capitol. Most GOP officials initially condemned the violence but gradually returned to supporting Trump as he retained influence over the party base.

The transformation shocked longtime party operatives. Republicans who spent decades building a reputation as tough on Russia now echo Trump’s praise of Vladimir Putin. Senators who once championed free trade now support tariffs Trump imposed during his presidency. The ideological contortions extend to deficit spending, executive power and even support for law enforcement agencies that investigate Trump.

What’s Next

Republican officials face immediate decisions about Trump’s role in the 2026 midterms. Party rules require the eventual presidential nominee to control the RNC, giving Trump enormous influence over party operations if he wins the nomination again. GOP leaders plan a September meeting to discuss changing those rules, though any attempt to limit Trump’s power risks triggering a civil war within the party.

The broader implication extends beyond electoral mechanics. Republicans risk becoming a regional party competitive only in states Trump won comfortably. That geographic concentration threatens their ability to win Senate majorities or Electoral College coalitions. The party’s own demographic research shows younger voters rejecting GOP candidates at historic rates, suggesting the problem will worsen before it improves. What remains unclear is whether Republicans can address these challenges while Trump remains their most influential figure.